April sales up 14.8% year-over-year. Inventory rising. Rates holding steady. A clear-eyed look at where the San Diego luxury market stands heading into summer 2026.
Jon Granston | June 22, 2026
San Diego County is separating itself from the rest of Southern California in a meaningful way. April sales climbed 14.8% year-over-year — against essentially flat growth of 0.1% across the broader SoCal region. That divergence is not noise. It reflects sustained demand for coastal California at a scale that Los Angeles and Orange County are not currently matching.
The average home value sits at $1,007,800, down a measured 2.3% over the past year, with median listing price cooling to $949,000 and median sold price tracking around $920,000. These are not distress signals. They are the markings of a market finding equilibrium after years of compressed inventory and compressed decision-making.
Inventory has improved, though modestly. Active listings averaged 1,991 in Q1 2026 — up 9.5% year-over-year — giving buyers a degree of selection that felt almost theoretical two years ago. Average days on market sits at 32. That figure will read as slow to anyone who lived through 2021 and 2022, but by any historical or national standard, it is a fast market.
The strongest submarkets continue to be the ones with irreplaceable characteristics: La Jolla, Pacific Beach, and North Park are posting gains of 1 to 3 percent. Less amenitized areas are holding flat. The market is not rising uniformly — it is rewarding specificity.
Compass Research projects 4.25 million home sales in the U.S. this year, a 5% increase from 2025. Mortgage rates are averaging 6.4%, a figure that has proven less paralyzing than many anticipated. What the data reveals most sharply is the gap between intent and action: purchase mortgage applications surged 15 to 25% year-over-year while actual sales grew only 2 to 4%. That spread represents an enormous pool of buyers who are qualified, motivated, and waiting.
Shadow inventory compounds this dynamic. Roughly 60% of listings were withdrawn by November 2025, representing approximately 150,000 homeowners nationally who are ready to sell when conditions feel right. When that inventory activates, the competitive landscape shifts — for buyers and sellers alike.
For luxury buyers and sellers in coastal San Diego, the window is defined and deliberate. Sellers who have been waiting for a signal — not a bottom, not a peak, but a signal — are looking at a moment of relative advantage before that shadow inventory activates and competition for buyer attention increases. Buyers with genuine readiness have more time and more inventory than they've had in years, but the submarkets that matter most remain contested.
La Jolla does not stay patient for long. Neither does Del Mar. The market has slowed enough to allow for deliberate decisions. It has not slowed enough to allow for indefinite ones.
Jon Granston · Advisory San Diego · DRE #01876007 · (858) 252-0307
